Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
