What Is the Probability For Trump's Gaza Strip Proposal Will Work?

Hamas's conditional acceptance toward Donald Trump's Gaza agreement on Friday was met with worldwide approval and is the nearest the two warring sides have come in two years to ending the war in Gaza.

How Close Are We to an Agreement?

Hamas's partial acceptance of the Trump plan marks the nearest mediators have got over the last several months to a comprehensive termination of the conflict inside the Gaza Strip. However, they are still distant from a deal.

The US president's multi-point plan to end the war requires that Hamas release all hostages in three days, surrender ruling power to an international authority chaired by Donald Trump, and disarm. In return, Israeli forces would step-by-step withdraw its forces from Gaza and release more than one thousand Palestinian prisoners.

The deal will also mean a surge of relief supplies into Gaza, some areas of which are experiencing famine, and recovery financing to Gaza, which has been almost entirely decimated.

Hamas gave consent on three items: the release of all hostages, the surrendering of authority and the pullout of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip. Hamas declared the rest of the deal must be discussed together with other Palestinian parties, as it is part of a joint national approach.

In practice, this means the group seeks further negotiations on the contentious elements of the Trump deal, particularly the demand that it disarms, and a definite timetable on Israel’s withdrawal.

When and Where Will Negotiations Take Place?

Delegates have flown to Cairo to hammer out specifics to close the divide between the two sides.

Discussions will start tomorrow and it is anticipated to bring results over the next several days, regardless of the outcome.

Trump shared a picture of a chart of Gaza last Saturday evening that showed the boundary up to which Israeli forces should withdraw and said if the group consents to it, that the ceasefire would start immediately. The US president is keen to conclude the conflict as it comes to its two year mark and before the Nobel committee declares who receives the Nobel Peace Prize in October, an issue that is a frequently mentioned focus of his.

The Israeli prime minister said an agreement to secure the return of Israeli captives home should preferably take place soon.

What Gaps Persist?

Both Hamas and Israel have been cautious their positions heading into the talks.

The group has consistently declined to give up its weapons in past negotiations. It has given no word whether its position has changed regarding this issue, even as it principally agrees to the US proposal, with conditions. Trump and Israel have made it clear that there exists limited flexibility on the disarmament issue and are determined to bind Hamas through firm wording in any agreement moving forward.

The militant faction additionally stated it agreed to handing over authority in Gaza to a technocratic governing force, as specified by the Trump plan. However, in a statement, Hamas specified it would agree to a Palestinian technocratic governing body, not the international body that Trump laid out in the proposal.

The Israeli government has also sought to maintain the matter of its troop withdrawal vague. Just hours after announcing the US proposal during a shared media briefing in the US capital recently, Netanyahu published a recording assuring the Israeli public that troops would remain across much of Gaza.

Last Saturday evening, Netanyahu again repeated that troops would remain in Gaza, saying that hostages would be returned as the Israel Defense Forces would stay “deep inside the strip”.

The prime minister's stance appears to conflict against the stipulation in the US proposal that Israeli forces completely pull out from the territory. The group will demand guarantees that Israel will fully withdraw and that should the group gives up its weapons, Israeli troops will not return to Gaza.

Negotiators must close these differences, obtaining firm, unambiguous terms regarding giving up weapons from the group. They will also have to show to Hamas that Israel will genuinely pull out from Gaza and that there are international guarantees that will force the Israeli state to adhere with the conditions of the agreement.

The differences might be resolved, and the US will undoubtedly push the two sides to achieve a deal. However, negotiations have come near to an agreement before abruptly failing several times in the past two years, making both sides cautious of celebrating before a final signing.

Ryan Brown
Ryan Brown

A tech enthusiast and writer passionate about exploring the future of innovation and sharing insights on emerging trends.